Daily Briefing: The good, bad and ugly of Trump’s tariffs

Bad math? When Trump first threatened “reciprocal tariffs” he said the US would levy the same tariffs that countries were charging. Except that’s not how the final tariffs were calculated. Instead, the Trump administration seems to have come up with a figure that would level out its trade deficit with partners. However, as my colleague Udit Misra explains, a trade deficit isn’t always a villain in the economic story.

The impact: In defiance of World Trade Organisation (WTO) norms, Trump hasn’t spared anyone, rich or poor. History shows that the last time the US raised import tariffs, it only brought economic despair to the country and the world. Experts fear Trump’s protectionism will spark a global slowdown, raise prices, and hit India’s growth by 30-60 basis points!

Road ahead: As Trump brings the curtains down on years of globalisation, will China pick up the mantle of global economic leadership? There are no signs yet, writes contributing editor C Raja Mohan. But one thing’s for sure: the international order is due for a reset, and India must follow suit.

Economics professor Shoumitro Chatterjee also weighs in on how India must react. Amid the global uncertainty, India could become a safe haven of predictability for global firms.

Silver linings: There may just be reason to cheer for India, which enjoys a comparative advantage over its Asian peers. At 27 per cent, India’s tariffs are well below China’s (34%) and Vietnam’s (46%)—its competitors in the American market. Sectors such as garments, textiles, smartphones and solar modules may have a competitive edge. Crucially, pharmaceuticals have been exempted from these tariffs.

Additionally, amid ongoing bilateral trade negotiations and with scope for reforms, India may just walk away with a few concessions.

Well, that’s that on Trump’s tariffs. Here are some other stories you shouldn’t miss from today’s edition.

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Loss: On Tuesday, the Supreme Court came down heavily on local authorities over the “inhuman and illegal” demolition of homes in Prayagraj in 2021. The houses were demolished due to supposed links to gangster Atiq Ahmed, who was shot dead in 2023. The petitioners recall harrowing tales of losing their homes.

Unearthed: A global collaboration of international journalists published the explosive Panama Papers in April 2016, exposing a web of tax evasion and fraud by the world’s wealthiest. In the nine years since, Indian authorities have recovered a staggering Rs 145 crore in tax revenue. Here’s what The Indian Express has found.

And Finally…

In 2017, when the Sri Lankan team came to play a Test match in Delhi in the first week of December, oxygen cylinders had to be rushed to the dressing room. In November, the air is even worse over the national capital. These concerns notwithstanding, the Board of Control for Cricket in India (BCCI) has scheduled a Test series with South Africa in Delhi between November 14 and 18. Their defence? “Pollution doesn’t happen every year”. Er…

That’s all for today, folks! Happy weekend-ing,
Sonal Gupta

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