What are the reasons for Blues' post-break turnaround that has them on brink of playoffs?

Across the last two months, it’s been a popular question around St. Louis.

Why did the Blues become the best team in the NHL after the 4 Nations break?

They went from being eight points out of a playoff spot in mid-February to potentially clinching a postseason berth as soon as Saturday, when the Blues play their final road game of the regular season in Seattle. When it looked like the Blues would miss the playoffs for the third straight season, they turned it around and appear destined for one of the two wild card positions in the Western Conference.

Entering Saturday’s game in Seattle, the Blues have gone 18-4-2 since the break, a league-best .792 points percentage. They have lost their last two games after winning a franchise-record 12 in a row before that.

It’s a lot of things that have led the Blues back, and here are some of them.

Stars playing like stars

The Blues have been led by their best players during this stretch, as Robert Thomas has been the most productive player in the NHL since the 4 Nations break. His 37 points are the most in the league, three more than Nikita Kucherov, David Pastrnak and Nick Suzuki below him. His 29 assists are four more than Kucherov, and he carries a 10-game point streak that is the longest active one in the NHL.

Jordan Kyrou has 11 goals and 12 assists in the 24 games since the break, and Pavel Buchnevich has scored five times in the last six games since returning from missing four games.

Bonus scoring

Further down the lineup, the Blues have received contributions from unexpected but consistent sources since the break. That includes Dylan Holloway, who had 23 points in 21 games before suffering a lower-body injury that will keep him out week-to-week.

Zack Bolduc’s 12 goals since the break lead all rookies, and he’s up to third among rookies in goals across the entire season. Defenseman Cam Fowler has had to endure the loss of defensive partner Colton Parayko, but has shined throughout still, and his 20 points since the break are the fifth-most in the league among NHL defensemen.

For the most part, the Blues have gotten contributions from up and down their lineup, allowing them to stave off prolonged slumps and string together wins.

Team defense under Montgomery

When Jim Montgomery took over as Blues coach in late November, the Blues have been one of the best defensive teams in the NHL, and that continued post-break. Since the break, the Blues lead the NHL by allowing just 22.65 shots on goal per 60 minutes of 5 on 5 play. Before the break, the Blues allowed 27.79 shots per hour, which ranked 18th in the league. St. Louis is also a top-five team in limiting both expected and actual goals across the last two months.

At one point, the Blues went 16 straight games without allowing 30 shots on goal, the franchise’s longest streak since a 16-gamer in 2018-19.

Physical sacrifice

Ask around the Blues dressing room, and they’ll tell you quickly that the difference between pre- and post-break is that this current team is “playing for each other.” They are blocking shots, they are forechecking hard, they are changing at the right time.

Montgomery previously pointed to a reverse hit in practice by Alexey Toropchenko on Buchnevich as a potential turning point that “hard work is fun,” and that’s permeated through many parts of the Blues game.

St. Louis is the only team in the league to rank in the top six in the NHL in both hits and blocked shots since 4 Nations.

Better finishing on power play …

Overall, the Blues power play hasn’t inspired much confidence, ranking 19th in the league by converting on 21.3% of its opportunities. But that doesn’t fully depict the team’s recent success on the man-advantage, as they are seventh in the NHL at 25.8% since the break.

Much of that success can be attributed to a blistering 21.6% shooting percentage on the power play, since their offensive generation (measured by shot attempts, shots on goal, scoring chances, high-danger chances and expected goals) still ranks in the bottom third of the league recently.

Bolduc’s five power-play goals in that span are only behind Wyatt Johnston, Alex Ovechkin and Kevin Fiala. Thomas has factored on all 11 power-play goals scored with him on the ice.

… And better goaltending on penalty kill

The Blues goaltending tandem of Jordan Binnington and Joel Hofer have been solid, and Binnington even earned third star of the month honors for his play in March. The Blues insulated them well, and then they made big saves when they needed to.

But their biggest step forward has come on the penalty kill.

The Blues PK used to leak goals, and when St. Louis was at 71.3% at the break, it was on pace to be the worst kill in franchise history (and the ninth-worst in league history). But the unit has bowed up, led by the goalies with their .880 save percentage on the kill which is sixth-best in the league. Before the break, the Blues goalies were dead-last with a .795 save percentage on the PK.

Winning one-goal games

When the Blues lost 4-3 to Edmonton on Wednesday night, it was their first one-goal loss in regulation since the break, and dropped them to 8-1-2 in such games.

Only Toronto (.750) has a better points percentage than the Blues (.727) in one-goal games with at least seven such games since the break. St. Louis was 14-7-5 in one-goal games prior to the break.

Montgomery and the Blues have credited their ability to win tight games to their game management habits, and their third periods, many of which have kept teams to the perimeter when holding onto leads.

Jobu

The “Major League” figurine showed up sometime after the break and has his own locker stall both at home and on the road, and has become a secondary mascot for the Blues during their playoff push. The players have credited Jobu with intermission speeches, and for generally providing calming vibes in the dressing room.